Project Numbers for the Hunter-Net

Hunter-Unity.org
contact webmaster@hunter-unity.org
The full number progression (goes with rants)
Numbers

The Rants on the Hunter List



From: orpheus [tinscho@yahoo.com]
Sent: Tuesday, October 30, 2001 9:05 PM
To: Hunter List
Subject: the numbers. please read

ok we need to talk. all of us. have a seat, pull up a chair, turn down the music. yes, its after-school special time.

we are going to talk about the numbers. specifically how fast they are growing, and how there are not characters to fill them.

Alluring Desire and Computer Intuition, your numbers are too high. way too high. like, divide by 10 high. change them, please.

now for the rest of us. the numbers are growing, but most of us seem to have this idea that they should be somewhere around 1000.

lets look at this. there are 164 memembers of the V2 site as of today. this number stays relatively constant, or at least has for the past three months, varying maybe one or two people.

ok, there have been imbued for two years, give or take a few months. but, witness1 was not the first imbued, and the hunter-net was not made that day. a quick glance through revealed most of the game characters are under 200, with an occasional one higher, and at least one (driver300) in the 300's.

so lets take 18 months. subract the last six months off. this is due to the last few books not having numbers, and the time it takes to publish.

so 18 months, 300+ members. that is about 20 a month. maybe as high as 30-40. so lets say 30.

18 * 30 = 540.

so, there should be, approximately 500 people that have come into the list. (remember, not all imbued join up.) at this point, new people should be starting in the mid to high 500's. definatly not in the 1200-1300 range, even my number is too high (1134 for those who keep score).

ok. does this make sense?
well, i plotted it all out, to see if it did. the hunter list came up circa last week of november, 1999. so lets put all of that week and all of decemeber into our "initial" pool. estimate 50 people joined in that time. maybe high, maybe not, its an estimate.

so 50 to start with. if 30 people joined each month, thats 710 people to this date. not too bad.

but there is a problem. its two fold. first, the list fluxuates, and second, there was the V2 era.

first the fluxuation. summer and winter breaks put a slow down in subscription. lets say by half. so for june, july, january and december, the rate is 15 people a month. that brings the october total to 600.

but the list crashed. there was about three weeks in july of 2000 where no one posted. then V2 got started, and ran till about october. lets say for july 2000, no one joined. then until october, about 10 people a month joined.

this puts our total for october at 550. which puts us on score with the books. june of 2001 put us at about 400 with the books, and about 450 with these numbers.

this means my number should have been more like 445.

so, what to do about this.

well, one idea is nothing. "good job at the math, jake, so what?" as easy as this is, i don't think its the best idea.

see, if we fix this now, we can save us trouble in the future.

the other idea is that no one fixes anything, we just guide those coming in. with that, i mean, i post the projection i made to come up with those numbers, the person looks and says, "well, i joined in month A so i should have a number between X and Y." this is my recommendation. that way we don't get 8000 range numbers, but don't get 30's either. the numbers grow relativily steadily, and actually mean something. and for anyone who wants to change, can change.

so this is my idea.

http://hunter-unity.org/numbers.html

take a look, tell me what you think.

jacob, player of orpheus


From: orpheus [tinscho@yahoo.com]
Sent: Wednesday, October 31, 2001 6:36 PM
To: Hunter List
Subject: the numbers, take two.

this is a response to just about everyone. if you feel left out, pr me, and i'll write you a note too.

so john, lets talk numbers.

i went through and updated the list, one for 40 a month and another for 45 a month. it puts october 2001 at 710 and 775 respectfully. (note, this does not take into account september, where practically no hunter things were done.)

even at that, it is lower than the numbers we currently use. the biggest problem is that we have no data. no real data that is. take a look at the last roll call. four people came out from lurking, a fifth had been here less than a week. so five people, seven with CI and AD. so seven, approximatly for the month of october, joined the list, and wrote to the list. is this represenative of the people joined? i don't know.

but i have a hunch. it goes like this. the list started off on a hard start, each month a good number of people joined. even if the twinks were given numbers, that number per month was probably never above 50 or 60. but then time slipped away. see, the main book is getting older, the year of the reckoning is over, and exalted is out (not to meantion new bremen and other online stuff WW has) so the number per month is gradually decreasing.

from the number of posts per day, you can tell that the list population is falling, yes life/work/family/shit gets in the way of posting, but that alone does not explain the number of people that are here.

but that was mainly an aside. and complicated math i'd rather not get into. so let me do it like this. for that first year, i concur, lets use 45 a month. but for this year, 2001, lets use 40 a month. (then to project into 2002, 30 a month will be used.) this puts the october number at 740. so, the new october people should have numbers from 700 to 740.

to this, however, i go back to my original argument of using the book release dates, and the numbers therein. See, that puts us around 580 for May/June when the players guide came out with rabbitkeeper377 (go to http://patriot.net/~jmeehan/Hunters/rollcall.html for the pub characters) that puts us almost 200 above the book. do we use that as a reference? i don't know. those characters only exist on this list in the sense that you cannot be one of them (or have their number) and something inside says that 45, even 40 a month is too high.

that and monsters (ie TWINKS) do not get numbers, so that cuts out at least two posters a month, if not more.

so, how about this. first year, high of 40, low of 20. second year, high of 30, low of 15, this puts oct at 625. this seems better. may/june is 500, still high, but closer than before. i'll continue with the math, maybe there is more to come.

http://hunter-unity.org/numbers.html

(quick legend. the 'number of people joined' column is the number added to the "total" column for the month before.)


as for me being anal. well, if you ever met me, that would never cross your mind. i am forgetfull and laid back. last night i wrote all that up after reading through the books, just looking at numbers and doing math (in excel btw.) paying attention does not make you anal. and its not a compliment. "has great attention to detail" is probably what you were trying to say.


as for alluring desire. your number is your business, and you can keep it or change it, i cannot force you to change. however, you must understand that the number is a part of the game, and has a meaning. the easiest to see is that the number relates to when you joined the list. that being said, your numbers, by the quickest estimate, will appear sometime around 2006. Orpheus, nor any other character i make will communicate with you IC until such time as the numbers are current, since he cannot talk into the future. i respect your decision, please respect mine.
-jacob, orpheus's webmaster